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Your Personal Benefits

Keywords

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Forget saving humanity. Price the future you personally have to live in.

This is not only a mortality frame. Allianz Life’s 2026 retirement study found that 67% of surveyed Americans worry more about running out of money than death, up from 57% in 2022152. The sample was U.S. adults age 25+ meeting income or asset screens, so do not treat it as a claim about every human. Treat it as a useful warning label: many humans hear “you might go broke” before they hear “you might die.”

The Earth Optimization Prize153 is not mainly a story about whether a PRIZE deposit earns on the deposit itself. It is a story about what happens to the rest of your life if civilization keeps compounding toward extraction, or if it pivots toward health and productive growth instead.

The Average Human On Earth

If you enter nothing into the calculator below, it starts from the model’s default human:

Baseline Current modeled value
Age

30.5 years
Remaining life

48.5 years (95% CI: 45.2 years-51.8 years)
Annual income

$14,375 (95% CI: $14,078-$14,686)
Annual savings capacity

$3,881 (95% CI: $3,589-$4,155)

That default is not “you.” It is the fastest way to make the math legible before you personalize it. If you earn more than the global average, your personal upside is proportionally larger, because richer humans have more to lose when civilization collapses and more to gain when it does not. If you earn less, the health gains matter more, because poorer humans die earlier and the treaty buys years.

The Four Futures

Future What the model says
Failed-State Trajectory The average person ends up with roughly $1.1 million (95% CI: $991,645-$1.21 million) in cumulative lifetime income while the destructive economy rises from 11.5% of GDP now, reaches 25% by 2033, and reaches 50% of GDP by 2040, where stealing beats creating because whatever gets built gets looted.
Minimum Sustainable Trajectory (1% Treaty) Adds $3.48 million (95% CI: $1.05 million-$9.82 million) in lifetime income, 21.7 years (95% CI: 15.6 years-30 years) in healthy life by year 15, and $6.74 million (95% CI: $2.62 million-$15.7 million) in blended upside.
Wishonian Optimal Governance Trajectory Adds $47.2 million (95% CI: $13.9 million-$286 million) in lifetime income, 26.8 years (95% CI: 23.8 years-36.5 years) in healthy life by year 15, and $51.2 million (95% CI: $16.3 million-$294 million) in blended upside.
Collapse Tail The destructive economy reaches 35% of GDP (Terminal Parasitic Load) by 2037 if the loop is not broken. Historical collapses (Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Argentina, Zimbabwe) consistently begin at 35-45% total extraction.

Personal Scenario Calculator

How much is it rational for you to contribute?

This calculator scales the repo’s average-person scenario gains to your age, income, and available savings. It is not trying to be conservative. It is trying to show the model’s full upside and the downside of staying on the current path.

Collapse-tail markers are shown in the summary below as the downside of not breaking the current loop.
Default = global median age.
Income upside scales from the global average baseline.
Default = average annual savings capacity per person.
Used to compute break-even probability lift and share of savings.
Example: 0.01 means one-hundredth of one percentage point.
Default contribution = 1% of default available savings.
Personal Income Upside
Personal Healthy-Life Upside
Blended Personal Upside
Expected Value Of Your Contribution
Break-Even Contribution
Break-Even Probability Lift

Blended upside = lifetime income gain + valued healthy-life gain. It is intentionally expansive rather than conservative. The scenario cards above show the downside of letting the current trajectory continue.

What This Means

The calculator is not being sentimental. The spread between “civilization keeps compounding toward extraction” and “civilization pivots toward not dying” is so large that even microscopic probability shifts justify action. This is the mathematical structure of Pascal’s Wager, except the wager pays in cash and the alternative is measurably worse by every metric your species tracks.

Your contribution does not need to cause the treaty to pass. It needs to make the treaty fractionally more likely. The expected value of fractionally more likely, multiplied by the size of the upside, is large. This is how insurance works. This is how venture capital works. This is how every expected-value calculation works. Your species understands this math when it applies to stock portfolios and ignores it when it applies to not dying. I find this selective.

If you want the mechanism that buys those better futures, read The Earth Optimization Prize. If you want the short version, do three things: make a PRIZE deposit, answer the referendum questions, and recruit two people. For the “recruit two people” part, the exact message to send and the twenty-two-question phone script to walk them through is at The Most Important Secret in the World.

For the full parameter set, Monte Carlo outputs, and sensitivity analysis, see the Parameters and Calculations chapter.