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The Cost of Disease

Keywords

war-on-disease, 1-percent-treaty, medical-research, public-health, peace-dividend, decentralized-trials, dfda, dih, victory-bonds, health-economics, cost-benefit-analysis, clinical-trials, drug-development, regulatory-reform, military-spending, peace-economics, decentralized-governance, wishocracy, blockchain-governance, impact-investing

The Daily Body Count

Every single day:

  • 150,000 people stop existing
  • 130,000 from disease (diseases are very effective at their job)
  • 80,000 were preventable132 (you had the technology, you just chose not to use it)
  • 13,700 are children133 (which matters if you believe children should continue existing)

That’s fifty 9/11s. Every. Single. Day.

After the first 9/11, America invaded two countries and spent $2 trillion. After the fifty daily 9/11s, humanity shrugs and checks Instagram.

Every hour: 6,250 deaths. Every minute: 104 deaths. Every second: 1.7 deaths.

If you took everyone in a decent-sized stadium and deleted them, that’s one day. Then do it again tomorrow. And the day after that. Forever. You’d run out of stadiums before you’d run out of corpses, which seems like poor urban planning.

That’s the body count. Now let’s talk about the bill.

The Financial Cost

While you read this sentence, disease just deleted $12.6 million of human potential from existence.

By the time you finish this paragraph, $60 million more will evaporate into cancer treatments, heart surgeries, and funeral expenses. Also Dave from accounting’s weird rash, but that’s probably unrelated.

Humanity hemorrhages $397.4 trillion annually43 to diseases that are basically just engineering problems with meat robots.

That’s more than the entire global economy. Every year. You lose more money to disease than you make doing everything else combined. It’s like running a lemonade stand that costs more in lemons than the entire GDP of Earth.

“Wait,” you say, demonstrating basic arithmetic skills, “global GDP is only $101 trillion134. How can we lose more than everything that exists?”

Because economists forgot to include the dying part. For centuries, economics measured productivity without accounting for the people who stopped being productive on account of being dead. This is like calculating the cost of a plane crash without including the plane, the passengers, or the fact that they were going somewhere.

The Actual Bill (Economist-Approved Misery Accounting)

Here’s what disease actually costs, translated from economist-speak into human language:

What We’re Losing What This Actually Means Annual Cost
Direct Medical Costs Paying doctors to Google your symptoms in a room that costs $500/hour $8.2 Trillion135
Lost Productivity Sick people make fewer spreadsheets, decreasing global PowerPoint supply $6.7 Trillion136
Lost Human Life (DALYs) Dead people contribute zero to the economy (economists finally noticed) $382.5 Trillion137
TOTAL DISASTER More money than exists on Earth $397.4 Trillion43

Let me explain that last one, because it’s where the real horror lives.

Disease costs $397 trillion a year. Most of that is dead people not being alive to do things. You could fix this by making people less dead.

Disease costs $397 trillion a year. Most of that is dead people not being alive to do things. You could fix this by making people less dead.

How to Measure Suffering Without Feeling Feelings (The DALY)

DALY stands for “Disability-Adjusted Life Year.” That’s economist-speak for “quantifying human misery without having to look people in the eye.”

DALYs measure healthy years lost. Dying at 30 instead of 80 loses 50 years. Living 50 years in a wheelchair at 50% capacity loses 25 years. The math is simple. Fixing it is apparently hard.

DALYs measure healthy years lost. Dying at 30 instead of 80 loses 50 years. Living 50 years in a wheelchair at 50% capacity loses 25 years. The math is simple. Fixing it is apparently hard.

One DALY = One year of healthy human life, deleted.

Die at 40 instead of 80? That’s 40 DALYs. Spend 10 years severely depressed? That’s 5 DALYs (economists calculated that being miserable counts as being half-dead, which is oddly accurate).

The entire human species combined? 2.55 BILLION DALYs annually137. That’s 2.55 billion years of human potential, dissolving annually into medical bills and funeral expenses.

What the WHO Thinks You’re Worth (Less Than a Tesla)

The World Health Organization decided one year of human life is worth 1-3 times GDP per capita138. They made this calculation sober, which is surprising.

Let’s use 3x GDP per capita. We’re optimists who think humans are worth at least three years of their economic output. This is the most generous estimate bureaucrats could manage, and it’s still less than a luxury sedan.

The math is simple and horrifying:

  • Value per healthy year: $150,000 (less than a Tesla, apparently)
  • Total DALYs lost annually: 2.55 billion years

Multiply these together:

\[ 2,550,000,000 \text{ years} \times \$150,000/\text{year} = \$382.5 \text{ trillion} \]

That’s $382.5 trillion of human potential. We flush it annually down the toilet labeled “diseases we haven’t cured yet because the money went to bombs.”

Let’s Break Down This Apocalypse By Time Unit

$397.4 trillion annually breaks down to:

  • $1.09 trillion EVERY DAY (more than most countries make in a year)
  • $45 billion EVERY HOUR (enough to fund a mid-size cancer research institute)
  • $757 million EVERY MINUTE (more than most lottery jackpots)
  • $12.6 million EVERY SECOND (a new Tesla Roadster worth of human potential, gone, every second, forever)

By the time you finish this chapter (about 10 minutes), disease will have cost humanity more than the entire Apollo moon program. We went to the moon for less than one chapter’s worth of disease costs.

Ten minutes of global disease costs more than putting a man on the moon. You went to the moon once. Disease happens every ten minutes.

Ten minutes of global disease costs more than putting a man on the moon. You went to the moon once. Disease happens every ten minutes.

The math is, as your children say, not mathing.

What’s Actually Deleting Everyone (The Greatest Hits)

Here’s what’s killing people while you read about what’s killing people:

Disease Annual Deaths Daily Deaths Will Die Reading This Chapter
Heart Disease 20 million139 54,800 500
Cancer 10.4 million140 28,500 260
Respiratory Disease 6.5 million141 17,800 160
Dementia 2.6 million142 7,100 65
Diabetes 3.4 million143 9,300 85
Kidney Disease 1.4 million144 3,800 35
Tuberculosis 1.3 million145 3,600 33
TOTAL 55 million146 150,000 1,370

1,370 humans will permanently stop existing while you read this chapter. That’s five 747s crashing. Every 10 minutes. Forever. If this happened to actual planes, you’d ground all flights within an hour and the 24-hour news cycle would collapse from overuse. But because it’s disease, you call it “natural causes” and go back to arguing about parking.

While you’re busy testing 0.000003% of potential cures:

  • 10 million people annually147 will die from antimicrobial resistance by 2050 (bacteria evolved faster than we did, which is embarrassing)
  • 600,000 people annually148 die from malaria (mosquitoes: 600,000, humanity: 0)
  • 10.4 million people annually140 die from cancer (your own cells killing you because they forgot how to die)
  • 20 million people annually139 die from cardiovascular disease (hearts that gave up on humanity, can’t blame them)

Each death represents:

  • Someone’s entire universe ending
  • A grandmother who won’t meet grandchildren
  • A scientist who might have cured the thing that killed them
  • $4 million in lost economic value (if we’re being cold about it, which economists always are)
  • Infinite sadness if you’re the one dying, mild inconvenience if you’re not

Your Body Is Not Magic, It’s Just Broken

Your body is a machine. Not mystical, not “in balance with the universe.” A biological machine made of 37 trillion cells. And like all machines, it breaks.

Machines can be fixed.

Every disease is just a broken part: cancer is cells with broken stop buttons, Alzheimer’s is broken garbage disposal in brain cells, aging is everything breaking at once very slowly (rude).

You don’t fix them because you haven’t tested 99.999997% of the repair tools. There are 166 billion possible molecules. You’ve tried ~0.003% of them. That’s like trying to find your car keys by checking one pocket then giving up forever.

Heart disease is like a clogged pipe. Cancer is like cells that forgot how to stop. Diabetes is like a broken thermostat. You understand pipes. You can’t fix the pipes inside you.

Heart disease is like a clogged pipe. Cancer is like cells that forgot how to stop. Diabetes is like a broken thermostat. You understand pipes. You can’t fix the pipes inside you.

What This Actually Costs

The $397.4 trillion “Disease Tax” is optional. Not optional like “you can skip it,” but optional like “it’s not a law of physics, just a choice humanity keeps making.”

The Disease Tax: $1.09 trillion per day in lost human potential. You pay it every day. You get nothing. At least real taxes build roads.

The Disease Tax: $1.09 trillion per day in lost human potential. You pay it every day. You get nothing. At least real taxes build roads.

It’s the price you pay for being too slow to fix your own broken meat robots.

Every day you delay costs another $1.09 trillion. Not theoretical future money. Real human potential dissolving right now into medical bills, funeral expenses, and GoFundMe campaigns. Meanwhile, politicians argue whether you can “afford” to test molecules.

Your Priorities, Written in Your Budgets

  • Military budget: Gets $7.4 billion daily61 to practice ending human life
  • Medical research: Gets $185 million daily47 to practice extending it

That’s a 40:1 ratio in favor of death over life.

If aliens intercepted your budget spreadsheets, they’d conclude you’re a death cult that occasionally dabbles in medicine as a hobby. (We have intercepted them. This is accurate.)

The Future You’re Paying For

Somewhere in the future, there’s a Tuesday when:

  • Cancer is a minor inconvenience like a cold
  • Hearts are as repairable as carburetors
  • Death is optional, not mandatory
  • Aging is something that happened to your ancestors

Every day between now and that Tuesday costs you $1.09 trillion. That’s the real invoice. The actual bill for choosing bombs over grandma’s cancer treatment.

Every day of military spending delays the cancer cure by another day. You’ve been delaying it for 75 years. The cancer is very patient.

Every day of military spending delays the cancer cure by another day. You’ve been delaying it for 75 years. The cancer is very patient.

The future is waiting. You’re just too busy building better ways to explode each other to notice. The explosions are very impressive, though. Full marks for spectacle.