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Problem Overview

Keywords

war-on-disease, 1-percent-treaty, medical-research, public-health, peace-dividend, decentralized-trials, dfda, dih, victory-bonds, health-economics, cost-benefit-analysis, clinical-trials, drug-development, regulatory-reform, military-spending, peace-economics, decentralized-governance, wishocracy, blockchain-governance, impact-investing

Before you can fix something, you need to understand what’s broken. In this case, what’s broken is approximately everything.

They say knowledge is power. In this case, knowledge is mostly just depressing. But you need it, the way you need to know your house is on fire before you can put it out.

The Daily Body Count

Every day, 150,000 humans die from disease and aging. That’s fifty 9/11s. Per day. Including weekends and holidays.

Every day, 50 times as many people die from being old and sick as died on 9/11. You started two wars over 9/11. For aging, you bought face cream and called it a day.

Every day, 50 times as many people die from being old and sick as died on 9/11. You started two wars over 9/11. For aging, you bought face cream and called it a day.

When one thing kills 3,000 people, it’s a tragedy and you start wars. When diseases kill 50 times that every day, it’s called “natural causes,” which is Latin for “you couldn’t be bothered.”

After the first 9/11, America invaded two countries and spent $2 trillion. After the fifty daily 9/11s, humanity shrugs and wonders what’s for lunch.

Where the Money Goes

Killing each other: $2.72T per year Curing diseases: $67.5B per year

The real bottleneck isn’t research funding. It’s testing which treatments actually work. Governments worldwide spend $4.50B annually on clinical trials, a 604 ratio, which in technical terms is called “having your priorities backwards.”

Humanity spends 2.72 trillion on weapons and 4.5 billion on testing medicine. That’s 604 times more money for killing than curing. You named yourselves Homo sapiens, which is Latin for ‘wise man.’ The irony is exquisite.

Humanity spends 2.72 trillion on weapons and 4.5 billion on testing medicine. That’s 604 times more money for killing than curing. You named yourselves Homo sapiens, which is Latin for ‘wise man.’ The irony is exquisite.

On Medical Research

Since 1970, the National Institutes of Health has spent over $1 trillion studying diseases.

Diseases cured: Zero.

Of its $47B annual budget, only 3.3% goes to actual drug trials in humans. The other 97% goes to studying mice, building buildings, and publishing papers nobody reads. The system operates at 2% of its potential capacity to save lives.

America spent $55,500 per patient to test COVID treatments. Britain spent $500. Same disease, same planet, same year. Different levels of commitment to wasting money.

America spent $55,500 per patient to test COVID treatments. Britain spent $500. Same disease, same planet, same year. Different levels of commitment to wasting money.

On the FDA

The FDA makes drugs 82x times more expensive than necessary. It takes 14 years and $2.60B to get a drug from discovery to patient. That’s longer than it took to build the pyramids. The pharaohs didn’t have to file quarterly progress reports in triplicate. Ninety-five percent of diseases have zero approved treatments because the FDA is excellent at preventing any drugs from reaching people.

Oxford tests drugs for $500 per patient. The FDA does it for $41,000. Both use the same scientific method, discovered in the 17th century. Innovation takes time.

Oxford tests drugs for $500 per patient. The FDA does it for $41,000. Both use the same scientific method, discovered in the 17th century. Innovation takes time.

On What War Costs

Humanity spends $2.72T every year on war. That works out to $340 per human on Earth for death tools.

One submarine costs the same as 1,000 cancer research labs. The submarine sinks things. The labs might cure leukemia. You bought the submarine.

One submarine costs the same as 1,000 cancer research labs. The submarine sinks things. The labs might cure leukemia. You bought the submarine.

This budget includes:

  • Nuclear bombs (13,000 of them, because 12,999 wouldn’t destroy Earth thoroughly enough)
  • Bullets (many)
  • AI murder robots (the future is here and it’s disappointing)
  • Fighter jets that cost more than hospitals
  • Submarines (one submarine = 1,000 cancer research labs)
  • Probably some kind of earthquake machine

Your personal lifetime contribution to the murder budget is $74,259. You could have bought a really nice casket instead. Or, and this is just a thought, not needed a casket quite so soon.

The interesting thing about having 13,000 nuclear warheads is that after the first few hundred, you’re just showing off. You can only destroy Earth once. The remaining 12,700 are for what, exactly? Destroying Earth’s ghost?

On What Disease Costs

Disease extracts $109T from humanity annually. That includes 10 million cancer deaths per year and 2 billion people living with chronic diseases. Depression alone affects a billion people, costing $5T in lost “wanting to exist.”

If disease were a country, it would be the richest country on Earth by a factor of ten. Unfortunately, disease doesn’t have a flag or an army, so nobody invades it.

Out of 2.40 billion people suffering from chronic disease, only 1.90 million patients/year get to participate in clinical trials annually. That’s 0.0792%. Half would volunteer if asked. You’re turning away 99.6% of willing participants.

On Democracy

A Princeton study found 0% correlation between what the public wants and what policies get enacted. Zero. Not “low.” Not “disappointing.” Zero. Your democracy has the same correlation with your preferences as a coin flip has with your breakfast order.

Defense contractors spend $250 million on lobbying and get $850 billion in contracts. That’s a 340,000 percent return. You voted and got a sticker. Both are forms of civic participation.

Defense contractors spend $250 million on lobbying and get $850 billion in contracts. That’s a 340,000 percent return. You voted and got a sticker. Both are forms of civic participation.

When military contractors want $100 billion, they spend $55 million lobbying for it. That’s a 1,813% return on investment. When you want healthcare, you have approximately zero dollars to lobby with. You spent it all on healthcare. Or you’re dead, which significantly reduces your lobbying capacity.

Meanwhile, the people who regulate industries used to work for those industries. They’ll work for them again after they’re done “regulating.” It’s called the revolving door, and it spins in one direction: toward money.

On the Fixed Pie

Money isn’t real, but resources are. Earth has 8 billion human brains. Every MIT graduate building missiles is not curing cancer. Every brilliant physicist designing warheads is not designing MRI machines. You have a fixed number of geniuses. You are using them to build things that kill other geniuses. Switzerland spends 0.7% of GDP on military and has $93K GDP per capita. America spends 3.5% and has $76,000.

Switzerland pays doctors more than generals and has a higher GDP per capita than America. America pays generals more than doctors and has more aircraft carriers. Different priorities, different outcomes.

Switzerland pays doctors more than generals and has a higher GDP per capita than America. America pays generals more than doctors and has more aircraft carriers. Different priorities, different outcomes.

The solution isn’t to print more money for medical research. The solution is to change the ratio. Take money from the killing budget, give it to the not-dying budget. This is called “arithmetic,” which is apparently a controversial field of mathematics.

What’s Next

The following chapters explain each problem in detail:

And if you don’t fix it, you are going to die from something that could have been cured. Personally. You. The person reading this. While the Pentagon loses another trillion dollars between the sofa cushions of its accounting department.