# The Most Important Secret in the World: 20 Questions to End War and Disease Message someone you love: > “Either I am crazy or I have discovered the most important secret in the history of the universe. Can you call me and tell me which?” When they call back, walk them through the questions below. Not a speech. Ask in order. Wait for each answer. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ These are 20 questions. Each one follows from the last. If you can say “no” to any of them, stop me and tell me which one. **1. Is disease your body breaking in ways that can be physically fixed?** Yes. We find first treatments for [15](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-new_disease_first_treatments_per_year) new diseases every year. There are [6,650](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-diseases_without_effective_treatment) still waiting. Your body is made of atoms. Atoms follow rules. When you figure out the rules, you fix the disease. There is no physical law preventing this. There is only a waiting list. **2. Do we already have what we need to work through that list faster?** Yes. There are 9,500 drugs already proven safe. [99.7% (90% CI: 99%-100%)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-unexplored_ratio) of the diseases they might treat have never been tested. Not because the tests are impossible. Because nobody paid for them. **3. If someone paid for them, would the money actually produce cures?** Yes. During COVID, the RECOVERY trial tested 6 treatments on 48,000 patients for [\$500 (95% CI: \$400-\$2,500)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-recovery_trial_cost_per_patient) per patient instead of the usual [\$41,000 (95% CI: \$20,000-\$120,000)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-traditional_phase3_cost_per_patient). One of those treatments, dexamethasone, saved over a million lives. Panicking scientists with no money did better than the normal system does on purpose. The method works. It just needs funding. **4. Where is all the money going instead?** Governments maintain [12,241](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_warhead_count) nuclear warheads. That is enough to end civilization [122](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-nuclear_winter_overkill_factor) times. You can only end it once. The other [122](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-nuclear_winter_overkill_factor) minus 1 apocalypses sit in storage, being expensive. Governments spend [604 (90% CI: 453-888)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-military_to_government_clinical_trials_spending_ratio) more on military than on clinical trials. Your chance of dying from terrorism: 1 in 30 million^([1](../references.llms.md#ref-chance-of-dying-from-terrorism-1-in-30m)). Your chance of dying from disease: 100%. **5. What if you moved 1% of military spending to clinical trials?** That is the [1% Treaty](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html)^([2](../references.llms.md#ref-1-percent-treaty-paper-2025)) ^([3](../references.llms.md#ref-1-pct-treaty-impact-paper-2025)). Everyone reduces 1%, so everyone still has the same number of missiles pointed at each other. Nobody is easier to invade than before. Everyone has 1% fewer missiles pointed at them. We gain [12.3x (90% CI: 4.92x-50.8x)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-dfda_trial_capacity_multiplier) more clinical trials. Disease eradication goes from [443 years (90% CI: 255 years-841 years)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-status_quo_queue_clearance_years) to [36 years (90% CI: 8.15 years-106 years)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-dfda_queue_clearance_years). In our lifetime instead of centuries. **6. How many people die while we wait?** About [104](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_disease_deaths_per_minute) per minute. [150 thousand](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_disease_deaths_daily) per day. That counter has been running since you picked up the phone. **7. How many are suffering right now?** About [2.4 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-current_disease_patients_global). Every day we wait, each of them spends one more day sick. That is [2.4 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-current_disease_patients_global) additional days of suffering created every single day. Tomorrow adds another [2.4 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-current_disease_patients_global). Multiply by however long we take to decide. **8. Do the people who control military budgets also get sick and die?** Yes. Cancer does not check your net worth. Alzheimer’s doesn’t care who you voted for. Every president, prime minister, general, and billionaire gets sick and dies of the same diseases as everyone else. So do their parents, spouses, and children. Most haven’t stopped to think about it. They’re too busy worrying about the next election to notice they’re dying too. **9. Has public pressure ever forced a change this large before?** Every time. Every major change that reached [3.5% (95% CI: 1%-10%)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_population_activism_threshold_pct) active public support has succeeded. Abolition. Women’s suffrage. Civil rights. Zero failures in the last century^([4](../references.llms.md#ref-3-5-rule)). We figured out that number and then never used it on purpose. **10. If [3.5% (95% CI: 1%-10%)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_population_activism_threshold_pct) is enough, why do you need more than that?** You don’t. But the [1% Treaty](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/solution/1-percent-treaty.html) is an even easier case: nobody gives anything up. The trade is [122](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-nuclear_winter_overkill_factor) apocalypses for [122](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-nuclear_winter_overkill_factor) minus 1, plus curing disease in their lifetime. At 50% of the global population, [4.13 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_registered_voters) people, no government on Earth holds out. Not out of virtue. Out of survival. **11. Is there a path from one person to [4.13 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_registered_voters)?** Yes. If every person who agrees gets 2 others to agree, and each of those gets 2 more, the count doubles every round. After 32 doublings you reach 4.3 billion. More than half of humanity. **12. How long does that take?** If each person shares and their 2 people share the next day: 32 days. If it takes a week: about 8 months. **13. Does every single person in the chain need to keep it going?** No. Most won’t. That’s fine. In every successful movement, most people did nothing. On average, each person just needs to reach 1 new person who keeps going. **14. Can you think of anything you could do in 30 seconds that would prevent more death and suffering?** No. Not donating to charity. Not volunteering. Not any other action at any price. Curing disease decades sooner prevents more suffering than anything else you can do right now. Sharing this takes 30 seconds. The silence you’re about to fill is the point. If you think of something bigger, stop me and say it. **15. What do you personally get out of this?** An estimated [\$518,879 (90% CI: \$221,703-\$860,930)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-treaty_trajectory_lifetime_income_gain_per_capita) in lifetime wealth for a typical person. Disease costs you money every year in insurance, lost wages, caregiving, and taxes. Curing it doesn’t just save lives. It makes you richer. **16. What does sharing cost?** About 30 seconds. Less time than explaining why you didn’t. No money, no rally, no life change. You pass this to 2 people and ask them what they think. **17. Can you think of anything else you could do with 30 seconds that would add [\$518,879 (90% CI: \$221,703-\$860,930)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-treaty_trajectory_lifetime_income_gain_per_capita) to your lifetime wealth?** No. Your 30 seconds have never been this valuable. They will never be this valuable again. **18. So the trade is: 30 seconds of your time, and in exchange we drop from [122](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-nuclear_winter_overkill_factor) apocalypses to [122](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-nuclear_winter_overkill_factor) minus 1, disease gets eradicated in our lifetime, the people we love are protected, and our lifetime income goes up by [\$518,879 (90% CI: \$221,703-\$860,930)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-treaty_trajectory_lifetime_income_gain_per_capita)?** Yes. That is the trade. **19. Will you vote at [warondisease.org](https://warondisease.org) right now, before you read the next question?** The vote takes 15 seconds. These questions aren’t going anywhere. The people dying aren’t waiting for you. **20. Will you share this with 2 people and ask each of them to keep the chain going?** Yes. Two people. Thirty seconds. The only thing that stops the wave is one person in the chain deciding “later.” Is that person you? ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 30 seconds × [4.13 billion](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_registered_voters) people = the 1% Treaty exists = disease eradicated in decades instead of centuries. That was the last question. Your orientation is complete, and your [Certificate of Humanity Management](../../knowledge/appendix/humanity-manager-employment-agreement.llms.md) is ready to print, Your Excellency. ## If They Argue With You - **“Military contractors will crush this.”** Military contractors keep 99% of their budget under the treaty. The Victory Incentive Alignment Bond pays them [272%](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-victory_bond_annual_return_pct) returns on top. They make more money going along with this than fighting it. Lobbyists do not have beliefs. They have clients. This gives them a better client. - **“Big Pharma will block this. They profit from sick people.”** Pharma currently spends about \$1 billion per drug and fails 90% of the time. They’re not profiting from disease. They’re gambling on disease. Under this plan, they get paid per patient enrolled in trials. Revenue instead of cost. A predictable paycheck instead of a casino. Pharma won’t block this. They’ll trample each other to sign up. - **“Politicians will never vote for this.”** Correct. That’s why the plan doesn’t ask them to be saints. A Super PAC rewards every politician who votes yes. Campaign support when they’re running. Good jobs after they leave office. The campaign budget is about eight times what military lobbyists currently spend per year. Politicians do whatever gets them re-elected. - **“This sounds like bribery.”** You’re describing lobbying. Same lobbying firms, same campaign contributions, same revolving door, same wine. The only difference is what the money buys. Current lobbying buys missile contracts. This buys clinical trials. If one kind of lobbying feels normal and the other feels shocking, that’s worth noticing. Also: this plan caps the lobbying portion at 20% and puts every dollar where everyone can see it. Try finding a government budget that’s more transparent than that. - **“The FDA and NIH already handle clinical trials.”** The NIH spends about [3.3% (95% CI: 2%-5%)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-nih_clinical_trials_spending_pct) of its budget on actual trials. The rest is buildings and paperwork. The FDA blocks safe drugs for years even after safety is confirmed. For every 1 person saved from a bad drug, about [3,389 (90% CI: 1,811-5,734)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-type_ii_error_cost_ratio) die waiting for a good one. The current system is what we’re fixing, not competing with. - **“Why not just reform the existing system instead?”** People have been trying for fifty years. More funding: they hired more administrators. Different leadership: same results, fancier titles. New regulations: now takes 20 years instead of 17. Reform bills: killed in committee. The system isn’t broken. It works perfectly for the people who built it. They won’t surrender it because you asked nicely. They’ll surrender it when you outbid them. That’s what this plan does. - **“I don’t have time to call everyone I love.”** One call a day for six weeks. By the math we just went through, it’s the best use of five minutes you have until the treaty exists. - **“My friends will think I’m weird.”** Probably. They’ll also call you back, which is the whole point. Seeming weird is a one-time cost. Not calling costs [150 thousand](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_disease_deaths_daily) lives per day the treaty doesn’t exist. Weird is cheaper. - **“Nothing like this ever works. Big systems don’t change.”** Communism was invented, took over half the planet, and collapsed in one human lifetime. No fax machines. Required mass murder. Was a terrible idea. This plan has the internet and an idea where people click a button and call two people they love. If that can’t happen, the obstacle isn’t the system. - **“War is human nature. Militaries are inevitable.”** Switzerland spent 200+ years avoiding major wars on a fraction of the US military budget. Life expectancy there is years higher than in the US. Costa Rica abolished its army in 1948. Nobody invaded. Both countries are still sovereign, and both are richer per capita for spending less on killing people. Nuclear weapons made territorial conquest mostly pointless in 1945. We’re still budgeting like it’s 1944. - **“I don’t believe the [12.3](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-dfda_trial_capacity_multiplier) times number.”** The RECOVERY trial already showed a [82x (90% CI: 21.4x-195x)](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-recovery_trial_cost_reduction_factor) cost reduction on real patients during the pandemic. The [12.3](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-dfda_trial_capacity_multiplier) number comes from how much funding divided by current trial slots. The math is at [manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html). Offer the link. Don’t wait for them to read it before moving on. - **“I want to think about it first.”** “Thinking about it” is what everyone has been doing for decades. That’s why the treaty doesn’t exist yet. The thinking is in the twenty questions; if one of them is wrong, tell me which one. Delay costs [150 thousand](../../knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.llms.md#sec-global_disease_deaths_daily) lives per day. Vote now. Think about it after. The vote is reversible. The deaths aren’t. 1\. Cato Institute. Chance of dying from terrorism statistic. *Cato Institute: Terrorism and Immigration Risk Analysis* *Chance of American dying in foreign-born terrorist attack: 1 in 3.6 million per year (1975-2015) Including 9/11 deaths; annual murder rate is 253x higher than terrorism death rate More likely to die from lightning strike than foreign terrorism Note: Comprehensive 41-year study shows terrorism risk is extremely low compared to everyday dangers Additional sources: https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/terrorism-immigration-risk-analysis \| https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/you-re-more-likely-die-choking-be-killed-foreign-terrorists-n715141* . 2\. Sinn, M. P. *The 1% Treaty*. (2025) doi:[10.5281/zenodo.20076511](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20076511) *Your governments possess nuclear weapons sufficient to end civilization 122 times but have not cured Alzheimer’s once. This treaty asks them to be 1% more rational.* 3\. Sinn, M. P. *The 1% Treaty: An Incentive-Compatible Approach to Ending War and Disease*. (2025) doi:[10.5281/zenodo.18161560](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18161560) *6,650 diseases have zero FDA-approved treatments; at current trial capacity, exploring them takes  443 years. Redirecting 1% of military spending scales capacity 12.3x, cutting the timeline to  36 years and preventing 10.7 billion deaths. At \$0.02/DALY, 9.3kx more cost-effective than the best existing interventions. The result holds across every specified adoption pathway.* 4\. Harvard Kennedy School. 3.5% participation tipping point. *Harvard Kennedy School* (2020) *The research found that nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent ones, and once 3.5% of the population were involved, they were always successful. Chenoweth and Maria Stephan studied the success rates of civil resistance efforts from 1900 to 2006, finding that nonviolent movements attracted, on average, four times as many participants as violent movements and were more likely to succeed. Key finding: Every campaign that mobilized at least 3.5% of the population in sustained protest was successful (in their 1900-2006 dataset) Note: The 3.5% figure is a descriptive statistic from historical analysis, not a guaranteed threshold. One exception (Bahrain 2011-2014 with 6%+ participation) has been identified. The rule applies to regime change, not policy change in democracies. Additional sources: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr/publications/35-rule-how-small-minority-can-change-world \| https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2024-05/Erica%20Chenoweth_2020-005.pdf \| https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world \| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3.5%25_rule* . 5\. ScienceDaily. Global prevalence of chronic disease. *ScienceDaily: GBD 2015 Study* (2015) *2.3 billion individuals had more than five ailments (2013) Chronic conditions caused 74% of all deaths worldwide (2019), up from 67% (2010) Approximately 1 in 3 adults suffer from multiple chronic conditions (MCCs) Risk factor exposures: 2B exposed to biomass fuel, 1B to air pollution, 1B smokers Projected economic cost: \$47 trillion by 2030 Note: 2.3B with 5+ ailments is more accurate than "2B with chronic disease." One-third of all adults globally have multiple chronic conditions Additional sources: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150608081753.htm \| https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10830426/ \| https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6214883/* . 6\. Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024). Diseases getting first effective treatment each year. *Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024)* (2024) *Under the current system, approximately 10-15 diseases per year receive their FIRST effective treatment. Calculation: 5% of 7,000 rare diseases ( 350) have FDA-approved treatment, accumulated over 40 years of the Orphan Drug Act =  9 rare diseases/year. Adding  5-10 non-rare diseases that get first treatments yields  10-20 total. FDA approves  50 drugs/year, but many are for diseases that already have treatments (me-too drugs, second-line therapies). Only  15 represent truly FIRST treatments for previously untreatable conditions.* 7\. International IDEA. [International IDEA voter turnout database world export](https://www.idea.int/data-tools/export?type=region_only&themeId=293&world=all&loc=home). (2026) *Best current register-based estimate of global registered voters. Sum of the latest available country-level Registration counts in International IDEA’s world export on 2026-04-22 = 4,128,142,495 registered voters across 199 countries and political entities. Methodology notes that Registration is the number of names on the voters’ register as reported by electoral management bodies, and comparability is imperfect because voter rolls and registration systems differ across countries. Additional sources: https://www.idea.int/data-tools/data/voter-turnout-database \| https://www.idea.int/data-tools/export?type=region_only&themeId=293&world=all&loc=home* . 8\. Bentley et al. NIH spending on clinical trials:  3.3%. *Bentley et al.* (2023) *NIH spent \$8.1 billion on clinical trials for approved drugs (2010-2019), representing 3.3% of relevant NIH spending. Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10349341/ \| https://catalyst.harvard.edu/news/article/nih-spent-8-1b-for-phased-clinical-trials-of-drugs-approved-2010-19-10-of-reported-industry-spending/* . 9\. Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute. RECOVERY trial cost per patient. *Oren Cass* (2023) *The RECOVERY trial, for example, cost only about \$500 per patient... By contrast, the median per-patient cost of a pivotal trial for a new therapeutic is around \$41,000. Additional sources: https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs* . 10\. FDA Study via NCBI. Trial costs, FDA study. *FDA Study via NCBI* *Overall, the 138 clinical trials had an estimated median (IQR) cost of \$19.0 million (\$12.2 million-\$33.1 million)... The clinical trials cost a median (IQR) of \$41,117 (\$31,802-\$82,362) per patient. Additional sources: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6248200/* . 11\. World Health Organization. WHO global health estimates 2024. *World Health Organization* (2024) *Comprehensive mortality and morbidity data by cause, age, sex, country, and year Global mortality:  55-60 million deaths annually Lives saved by modern medicine (vaccines, cardiovascular drugs, oncology):  12M annually (conservative aggregate) Leading causes of death: Cardiovascular disease (17.9M), Cancer (10.3M), Respiratory disease (4.0M) Note: Baseline data for regulatory mortality analysis. Conservative estimate of pharmaceutical impact based on WHO immunization data (4.5M/year from vaccines) + cardiovascular interventions (3.3M/year) + oncology (1.5M/year) + other therapies. Additional sources: https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates* . 12\. Federation of American Scientists. World nuclear forces. *Federation of American Scientists* (2024) *As of early 2025, we estimate that the world’s nine nuclear-armed states possess a combined total of approximately 12,241 nuclear warheads. Additional sources: https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/* .